# Versiro impact calculator — methodology

> Versiro provides intraday electricity trading signals (price forecasts). The impact calculator estimates the annual euro value those signals add to a power-generation portfolio, from its capacity, tradable volume and Versiro's shadow-trading benchmark alpha.

This document is a machine-readable companion to the interactive calculator at
https://versiro.com/impact (which requires JavaScript). All numbers below are generated from
the same model that powers the calculator.

## Formula

```
Annual uplift (€/year) =
    Installed capacity (GW) × 1000
  × Utilization share (%)
  × Hours per year
  × Tradable intraday share (%)
  × Realized alpha (€/MWh)

Realized alpha = Versiro benchmark alpha × Capture rate
Capture rate   = Fill ratio × Slippage retention × Operational realization
```

## Factors

| Factor | Unit | Meaning |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Installed capacity | GW | Nameplate capacity of the portfolio. |
| Utilization share | % | Share of nameplate actually produced (~capacity factor). Defaults to an industry benchmark per asset and bidding zone; editable. |
| Hours per year | h | Operating hours in the year (8,760 = full year). |
| Tradable intraday share | % | Fraction of production that is addressable in the intraday market. Benchmarked per asset and zone; editable. |
| Versiro benchmark alpha | €/MWh | Paper alpha of a 1 MWh position closed against a reference index, from 30-day shadow trading on real order-book data. |
| Capture rate | % | Fraction of paper alpha realized after execution frictions = fill ratio × slippage retention × operational realization. |

Capture rate breaks down into:

| Component | Meaning |
| --- | --- |
| Fill ratio | Order-book depth, timing, portfolio. |
| Slippage retention | Edge surviving execution cost. |
| Operational realization | Missed signals, approval latency. |

## Reference indices

Versiro benchmarks its signals by shadow-trading a 1 MWh up/down imbalance and
tracking the price it would have closed at, versus these industry indices:

| Index | Definition |
| --- | --- |
| DA | Day-ahead price |
| IDFull | VWAP of the last 9 hours in intraday |
| ID3 | VWAP of the last 3 hours in intraday |
| ID1 | VWAP of the final hour in intraday |

## Versiro benchmark alpha (30-day shadow trading, €/MWh)

Paper alpha per bidding zone, by reference index:

| Zone | DA | IDFull | ID3 | ID1 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| TTG | 5.77 | 5.82 | 4.79 | 3.25 |
| TBW | 4.87 | 4.89 | 3.82 | 2.35 |
| AMP | 5.34 | 5.37 | 4.25 | 2.51 |
| 50HZ | 5.82 | 5.34 | 4.22 | 2.65 |

Live data currently covers: TTG, TBW, AMP, 50HZ. Zones without live data
fall back to the aggregate values and are shown as "coming soon" in the tool.

## Portfolio archetypes

Selecting an asset type snaps the capture assumptions to one of these archetypes
(all editable):

| Type | Base tradable | Fill | Slippage | Operational | Benchmark |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Inflexible | 20% | 75% | 85% | 98% | Day-ahead |
| Flexible | 60% | 80% | 90% | 92% | ID3 / ID1 |
| Mixed | 35% | 78% | 88% | 95% | Blended |

## Worked example (the calculator's default view)

A 1.00 GW mixed portfolio in Germany (TTG), benchmarked against
IDFull:

- Installed capacity: 1.00 GW
- Utilization share: 31%
- Hours per year: 8,760
- Tradable intraday share: 22%
- Versiro benchmark alpha: 5.82 €/MWh (IDFull)
- Capture rate: 64% = 78% × 88% × 95%

Step by step:

- Annual production = 1.00 × 1000 × 31% × 8,760 = 2,715,600 MWh (2.72 TWh)
- Addressable volume = 2,715,600 × 22% = 597,432 MWh
- Realized alpha = 5.82 × 64% = 3.75 €/MWh
- Annual uplift = 597,432 × 3.75 = **€2,239,984 / year**

## Notes

Figures are illustrative estimates derived from Versiro's shadow-trading results and the assumptions shown above. Shadow-trading benchmarks reflect the TTG area in Germany over a 30-day window. Actual realized value depends on execution, market conditions and portfolio specifics. Probabilistic — not a guarantee of future performance.